Predicting AI: Do Freelance Writers Still Have a Career?
Forecasts on how artificial intelligence is evolving, and what it means for the future of freelance writing
The artificial intelligence genie is out of the bottle. What was once a lofty and abstract concept is now a real-world reality—and it's evolving, fast. The question is, what will this mean for content creators? We use our ideas, experience, and insight to create powerful writing, art, and other content. If generative AI can do that at pennies on the dollar, what room is there for human creators in this brave new world?
It's a question that I ask myself a lot as a freelance writer. And it's one that's a hot topic for discussion in the community of professional writers that I help to moderate. My overall view is that it's too soon to understand what the full impact will be. But, we will see significant changes, and freelance writers must be adaptable, agile, and aware. We can strengthen our skills, diversify into other areas, and build a bulwark against encroaching AI.
I'm not a doom-monger, but it's also important to be realistic about the threat of ChatGPT and similar tools to content creators. I'm basing my prediction on a very close interest in AI, conversation with other professional writers, and my 20-plus years in marketing, communications, and content management.
I covered some of these ideas in my very first Ironclad Creative post: AI No You Don't: Write Against the Machine. In this post I'm coming at AI from a slightly different direction, taking educated guesses at what AI means for the future of professional freelance writing. I'm certain that the actual impact will vary from my predictions. But, I hope it provides some food for thought.
In this post, I am specifically talking about professional freelance writing, where writers are hired by a client to create content to promote their business. This could be areas like blog posts, articles, website copy, white papers, case studies, or any other forms of written content marketing. Although these predictions are aimed directly at the freelance writing industry, I believe some of them can be interpreted for other types of content creators.
Predicting overall trends for AI and freelance writing
My high-level predictions for the impact of AI on professional writers include:
AI will have a major impact on freelance writing, and some areas will be affected much sooner than others.
Writers have to be aware of AI threats from a couple of different areas—the rise of generative text like ChatGPT, and the shift of search engines moving from linking to individual websites to providing AI-generated summaries as part of search results.
This will impact how certain types of clients think about content creation. Some will move to AI-generated content as it's much cheaper than hiring entry-level freelancers.
But, freelancers with the drive and discipline to pivot and learn new skills will still be able to write for a living for the foreseeable future.
Very little creative work will be immune to AI forever, so we need to be constantly vigilant and adjust our career strategies and skills appropriately.
I'll expand on my thinking below.
AI generative text is still in its infancy and is prone to hallucination and errors
ChatGPT and similar large language models make mistakes. Whether that's making up facts altogether, providing links to non-existent websites, or other errors, we're not able to fully trust AI-generated output.
Many of these areas will get resolved as OpenAI and other areas receive feedback on text, and incorporate more thorough error-checking into their models. For the moment, though, the need to fact-check everything can make some areas of AI inefficient.
ChatGPT and similar products will become suitable for 80%-plus of entry-level writing
The immediate threat of AI is in replacing writers who provide simple content for unsophisticated websites. This type of entry-level writing includes affiliate marketing, product descriptions, uninspired landing-page copy, and cheap clients.
This type of writing used to be the province of content mills—where writers would get paid 2 - 5 cents a word for writing that didn't require much research or personality. But, with the rise of AI, where you can get almost unlimited content for $20 a month, even paying writers pennies per word will fall out of favor.
AI probably won't entirely kill entry-level writing. Some clients will still want the personality and insight of a writer, but I expect the demand will shrink enormously for this type of work.
AI will make it harder to start out as a freelance writer
AI writers create a higher bar for writers wanting to start a professional, freelance career. The lack of entry-level clients means it will be hard for new writers to get established, earn money, create a portfolio, and prospect for higher-paying work.
But, it's not all doom and gloom—entry-level writers simply need to find a way to boost their value and leapfrog the types of writing that are most easily replaced by AI. They might do that through:
Developing subject-matter expertise in a specialist niche - something that's above "entry-level."
Building up a portfolio of specialist niche samples - review the type of writing that's already out there in your chosen niches, write something that can compare to them, and publish on Medium or similar. Use those as your samples.
Targeting clients who are not seeking out entry-level writers. See what their requirements are and see if you can create that type of content.
Focusing on content types that are not typical blog posts / articles - these will be harder for AI to replicate. For example, look into case studies, white papers, lead magnets, or similar - there's a higher barrier to entry for those.
Adding to your freelance writing skills. For example, you might branch out into project management, content strategy, design, interviewing skills, or other areas.
There will be fewer professional writers at the mid-tier and high-tier parts of the industry
The hollowing out of entry-level writing will lead to fewer writers in the mid-tier and high-tier parts of the industry. That's because these writers will eventually age out of the workforce, and there will be fewer new writers coming up to replace them.
Paradoxically, I think this will result in already-established writers being able to raise their rates. There will be less competition for work, and fewer writers able to meet demand. At least until AI is able to accurately replicate the value that those writers provide.
AI will eventually be able to create more advanced written content
As of now, AI models are trained on publicly available text that's more than two years old. That's why most AI output feels bland and generic, because it's learning from a vast amount of already published writing that, when smushed together, feels very homogenized. It's a lowest-content denominator.
At the moment, it's what insulates higher-tier writers from many AI threats. But, that's changing. When businesses can deploy AI into their infrastructure, it will become more powerful. AI will be able to scan internal documents, intranets, knowledge bases, and other areas to get a deep understanding of the information, brand, and approach of a specific business's content.
Those of us who do a lot of business writing must be vigilant of these changes. When they come, we will also need to pivot and expand our skills.
Some clients will reject AI and remain committed to unique insights and content from human writers
Some clients will still hire professional writers. These are the people who need expertise and insight that an AI simply can't provide. That might be coming up with brand new ideas, extrapolating on connections in existing content, or dealing with the complexity that's common in many businesses. There will be fewer of these types of clients, but writers who can demonstrate true value will find it easier to market themselves and find work.
Freelance writers will need to diversify into new skills to make themselves more resilient
All of these changes mean writers need to be specializing further, into skills that AI will find hard to replicate. For example, areas like very specialist niches, one where there are strong brand identities, or even into other, related skillsets like content strategy, project management, or editing.
This could include:
Content strategy, so you're not just creating content, but also advising on content type, timing, channels, audiences, etc.
Specialized content like white papers, case studies, etc. that are harder for AI writers to duplicate.
Content based on information that's not publicly available on the internet, so client-specific or specialized information, although see my above point about that being a temporary measure.
Content with a strong brand tone or approach, that AI cannot currently duplicate.
Project management, so that you can deliver the entirety of a content strategy and deliverables, from beginning to end.
Interviewing and knowledge management skills, so you can get in-depth information from Subject Matter Experts and present it as compelling writing.
General marketing management, taking into account other ways of attracting interest, other than through writing.
Using AI tools to make our own writing more efficient.
We can embrace AI tools in our own writing work
AI isn't always the enemy. I know of many writers who use ChatGPT and similar tools to write headlines, create the draft of an article, or summarize research. They then use the AI output as a starting point, adding their own unique perspectives, opinions, and experiences to a piece. AI isn't an all-or-nothing approach, it can be a valuable tool when guided by the right prompts and used appropriately.
We need to read widely to stay aware of upcoming changes
We can only prepare for what we know. It's important to get reliable information on how AI is progressing. With that in mind, here are some sources you might find helpful:
- - A very insightful Substack newsletter that explores the impact of AI on careers and the economy from AJ Freeman.
- - A Substack newsletter by Carlos covering in-depth analysis, links to AI research, and discussions around how AI is evolving.
- - A Substack newsletter by Josh Dance that dives into what's happening in AI and how we can take advantage.
OpenAI's blog - Updates on the development of AI products directly from the creators of ChatGPT.
Freelance Writers subreddit - I help to moderate this community of more than 120,000 professional writers, and we regularly have threads discussing all aspects of artificial intelligence.
I hope you've found my prognostications helpful. I'm sure you have opinions about AI and the impact it will have on your career. Please share these in the comments - let's talk about it! Additionally, if you know a professional writer who might benefit from my analysis, please do share this newsletter with them. Thanks!
AI is unnerving. At this point, it is not replacing human creativity. It will never write your personal story. Humans want a personal connection. When there is no personal connection, people leave. If we want to keep writing jobs we will need to keep the personal touch in our writing. The best write something new and original.
I appreciate your thoughts on this piece. And I think you touched on something key... experienced writers are still willingly using AI. Citing the convenience, or "hey, it's free, why not?" So sure, very soon, AI will replace content mills and entry level freelance writing.
My bigger question — WHY are experienced writers training the machine to think and sound like them? I've opted out of willingly engaging with AI for titles, drafts, prompts, for anything.
I hope more experienced writers like myself are doing the same.